Hawaii vs. Nevada: A Clash in the MWC
As college football fans gear up for Week 9, one of the most intriguing matchups takes place late Saturday night, October 26, when the Nevada Wolfpack (3-5, 0-2 MWC) face off against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-5, 0-2 MWC) at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu. With a kickoff scheduled for 11:59 PM ET, this game promises to be a thrilling conclusion to the day’s action.
Line Movement and Betting Odds
The betting landscape for this matchup has seen significant shifts throughout the week. Initially, Nevada opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but as the week progressed, the line flipped 4.5 points in favor of Hawaii, who is now a 2-point favorite. This dramatic change is largely attributed to concerns surrounding Nevada’s starting quarterback, Brendon Lewis, who is dealing with an undisclosed injury.
Current Odds:
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Wolfpack | +2 (-112) | +105 | O 44.5 (-108) |
| Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | -2 (-108) | -125 | U 44.5 (-112) |
As of Saturday afternoon, Hawaii is drawing 65% of the spread money, indicating strong public support. The total has also seen a decrease, dropping three points to 44.5, with a staggering 94% of wagers placed on the under.
Nevada’s Quarterback Conundrum
The injury to Brendon Lewis is a significant concern for Nevada. Lewis has been having a standout season, throwing for 1,290 yards and 10 touchdowns while completing 67.2% of his passes. His dual-threat capabilities have made him a crucial component of the Wolfpack’s offense. However, after leaving last week’s game against Fresno State, his status remains uncertain, and he is officially listed as questionable.
Head coach Jeff Choate has not confirmed whether Chubba Purdy or AJ Bianco will start in Lewis’ absence. Both backups have struggled in their careers, with Purdy holding a completion rate of just 53.3% and Bianco at 56.5%. The lack of experience and production from either player raises concerns about Nevada’s offensive effectiveness should Lewis be sidelined.
A Run-Heavy Approach for Nevada
If Lewis is unable to play, Nevada will likely lean heavily on its ground game. The Wolfpack boast a top-40 rushing offense, with Savion Red averaging an impressive 6.6 yards per carry. However, Hawaii’s defense has shown vulnerabilities against the pass, ranking outside the top-100 in opponent passing yards allowed. This could allow Hawaii to focus more on stopping the run, especially if they are not threatened by a backup quarterback.
Hawaii’s Offensive Strategy
On the flip side, Hawaii’s offensive strategy revolves around a high-volume passing attack, utilizing a run-and-shoot offense that ranks among the highest in the nation for pass attempts. Quarterback Brayden Schager has already thrown for 1,788 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. If Pofele Ashlock, the team’s leading receiver, returns from injury, it could provide a significant boost to the Rainbow Warriors’ aerial assault.
Nevada’s pass defense has been underwhelming, allowing 7.8 yards per pass and a completion rate of 62%. Their inability to generate pressure, reflected in a low sack percentage of 2.93%, could give Schager ample time to exploit mismatches in the secondary.
Historical Context and Recent Matchups
Historically, Hawaii has had the upper hand in this matchup, winning four of the last five meetings against Nevada and outscoring them by a combined 65 points. The Rainbow Warriors’ home-field advantage, coupled with Nevada’s quarterback uncertainty, adds another layer of complexity to this contest.
As the game approaches, the stakes are high for both teams, each seeking their first conference win of the season. With the line movement indicating a shift in momentum, Hawaii appears to be in a favorable position to capitalize on Nevada’s struggles, especially if they can effectively neutralize the run game and exploit the Wolfpack’s defensive weaknesses.
Final Thoughts
With the late-night kickoff and the potential for a thrilling finish, the Nevada vs. Hawaii matchup is set to be a captivating showdown. Fans and bettors alike will be watching closely as both teams look to turn their seasons around in this pivotal Mountain West Conference clash.