Navigating the Unpredictability of NFL Picks in 2023
Is picking NFL games tough this year or what? It seems like every week brings a new wave of surprises, and Week 3 was no exception. Upsets galore left many fans and analysts scratching their heads, and survivor pools were blown to smithereens. After a disappointing 7-9 straight-up record last week, my overall tally stands at 24-24. Yes, you read that right—I’m sitting at a .500 record. What a wild ride this season has been!
Against the spread, things were even trickier. I managed a dismal 6-10, bringing my record to 23-22-3. Thankfully, I’m still above .500 for my ATS picks, which is a small consolation. Interestingly, that record ties me for the lead in our expert picks at CBSSports.com. Who knew we’d be experts in mediocrity?
With just one more week of September games left, there’s hope that October will bring clarity. Historically, this month tends to crystallize team performances, so let’s dive into the upcoming matchups and see if we can turn things around.
Thursday Night Showdown: Cowboys vs. Giants
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Dallas Cowboys are looking to bounce back after two straight home losses, while the New York Giants are riding high after an impressive victory over the Cleveland Browns. Dallas has faced issues on both lines, but I expect them to tighten up their pass protection. The Cowboys’ defense, known for its ferocity, should also step up. I’m predicting a Cowboys victory here.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 19
Bonus: SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein is on a 22-8 ATS roll with Cowboys games and is leaning towards the Over in this prime-time matchup.
Sunday Early Games: Key Division Battles
Saints vs. Falcons
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
This matchup features two teams coming off losses, making it a crucial early division game. The Saints’ offense struggled against the Eagles, while the Falcons face a solid Saints defense. I foresee a low-scoring affair, with the Saints pulling off a narrow upset.
Pick: Saints 20, Falcons 17
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model favors the Saints to cover against the Falcons.
Bengals vs. Panthers
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Bengals are in dire straits at 0-3, and their defense has looked shaky. Meanwhile, the Panthers found success with Andy Dalton last week. I expect a high-scoring game, but the Bengals will manage to save their season with a much-needed win.
Pick: Bengals 31, Panthers 25
Rams vs. Bears
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Rams are coming off a comeback win against the 49ers, while the Bears are struggling to find their footing. With Matthew Stafford still at the helm, I believe the Rams will secure a victory over the Bears, dropping them to 1-3.
Pick: Rams 26, Bears 20
Bonus: SportsLine expert Jason La Canfora has included this game in his early best bets.
Sunday Afternoon Showdowns
Vikings vs. Packers
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This matchup is a classic NFC North battle. The Vikings are riding high at 3-0, while the Packers have shown resilience with their strong defense. I expect a low-scoring game, with the Packers edging out the Vikings.
Pick: Packers 21, Vikings 17
Jaguars vs. Texans
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Jaguars are struggling at 0-3, and the Texans will look to capitalize on their woes. C.J. Stroud is poised for a bounce-back performance against a shaky Jacksonville defense. I’m predicting a Texans victory.
Pick: Texans 30, Jaguars 16
Steelers vs. Colts
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Steelers are riding high at 3-0, and their physical defense will challenge the Colts. I believe the Steelers will do just enough on offense to secure a win against Indianapolis.
Pick: Steelers 20, Colts 16
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model also favors the Steelers to cover against the Colts.
Sunday Evening and Monday Night Highlights
Jets vs. Broncos
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Jets are coming off a solid performance, while the Broncos face a tougher challenge this week. I expect Aaron Rodgers to lead the Jets to a convincing victory.
Pick: Jets 27, Broncos 17
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Eagles are looking to maintain their momentum after a win against the Saints. The Buccaneers are struggling with injuries, and I believe Philadelphia will take advantage of that.
Pick: Eagles 23, Bucs 19
Titans vs. Dolphins
Kickoff: Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Titans are desperate for a win at 0-3, and the Dolphins are dealing with quarterback issues. I think the Titans will rally to secure a victory.
Pick: Titans 25, Dolphins 21
Seahawks vs. Lions
Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC)
This is a proving game for the Seahawks, who are 3-0 but have faced a relatively easy schedule. The Lions have shown defensive prowess, and I expect them to come out on top in this matchup.
Pick: Lions 27, Seahawks 20
As we head into the final week of September, the unpredictability of the NFL continues to keep fans on the edge of their seats. With each game, the stakes rise, and the quest for clarity becomes even more critical. Let’s see if we can navigate this wild season and come out on top!