Law: Forecasting the Winners of 6 Key MLB Player Awards, Including Rookie of the Year

The Intricacies of Voting for MLB Awards: A Writer’s Perspective

As a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) for over 15 years, I find myself with the NL Manager of the Year ballot this season. Interestingly, I’ve only voted for this award once before, and it remains my least favorite to evaluate. The challenge lies in the inherent difficulty of assessing a manager’s impact from the outside. While tactical decisions can be analyzed, the broader influence of a manager often eludes quantification. Take, for instance, the Milwaukee Brewers, who lost one of the league’s top managers and saw their season falter as a result. It raises the question: how much can we truly attribute a team’s success or failure to managerial prowess?

This year’s assignment allows me to delve into all six major player awards, and while these ballots are hypothetical, they provide a platform for discussion. So, let’s explore the candidates for the American and National League MVPs, Cy Youngs, and Rookies of the Year.

American League MVP

1. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
3. Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
4. Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees
5. José Ramírez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians
6. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
7. Vlad Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
8. Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox
9. Seth Lugo, RHP, Kansas City Royals
10. Brent Rooker, OF, Oakland A’s

As of September 23, Aaron Judge stands out with an impressive 10.5 bWAR, marking one of the best seasons for a position player in the integration era. His on-base percentage of .458 places him among the elite, alongside legends like Barry Bonds and Mickey Mantle. While I’ve previously expressed concerns about Judge’s longevity, his age-32 season is undeniably historic.

Bobby Witt Jr. has emerged as a superstar this year, likely to be a unanimous runner-up to Judge. His development reflects the Kansas City Royals’ commitment to nurturing young talent. Interestingly, I included two pitchers in my top ten, a decision that may seem unconventional given the current trend of limited pitcher usage. However, I believe it’s essential to consider the evolving landscape of pitching in MVP discussions.

National League MVP

1. Shohei Ohtani, DH, Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets
3. Elly de la Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds
4. Ketel Marte, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
5. William Contreras, C, Milwaukee Brewers
6. Chris Sale, LHP, Atlanta
7. Jackson Merrill, OF, San Diego Padres
8. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
9. Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants
10. Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies

In the National League, Shohei Ohtani’s season is nothing short of remarkable. His offensive contributions have been so significant that they outweigh the traditional drawbacks of being a designated hitter. With a staggering 73.5 batting runs, Ohtani has redefined the value of a DH, making a compelling case for MVP honors.

While I could argue for Francisco Lindor’s candidacy, Ohtani’s historic performance is hard to overlook. The Brewers’ acquisition of William Contreras in a trade that didn’t directly involve them is another fascinating subplot, showcasing how strategic moves can yield unexpected benefits.

American League Cy Young

1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit
2. Seth Lugo, RHP, Kansas City
3. Cole Ragans, LHP, Kansas City
4. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Baltimore
5. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle

Tarik Skubal is poised to win the Cy Young award, a testament to his outstanding performance this season. The presence of two Royals pitchers in the top five highlights the team’s successful offseason transactions. Burnes and Gilbert also deserve recognition for their durability in an era where starters often pitch fewer innings.

National League Cy Young

1. Chris Sale, LHP, Atlanta
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia
3. Logan Webb, RHP, San Francisco
4. Dylan Cease, RHP, San Diego
5. Cristopher Sánchez, LHP, Philadelphia

Chris Sale’s resurgence at 35 years old, following a series of injuries, is nothing short of astonishing. His performance this season could solidify his Hall of Fame candidacy. Logan Webb, known for his ability to eat innings, also deserves recognition for his consistent contributions.

American League Rookie of the Year

1. Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore
2. Luis Gil, RHP, NY Yankees
3. Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas

Colton Cowser has emerged as the top rookie in the American League, leading in WAR despite some flaws in his game. His ability to play regularly, even with limitations against left-handed pitchers, sets him apart from other candidates.

National League Rookie of the Year

1. Jackson Merrill, OF, San Diego Padres
2. Paul Skenes, P, Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Jackson Merrill’s impressive rookie season, coupled with his successful position change, makes him a standout candidate. While Paul Skenes may garner more attention, Merrill’s overall contributions cannot be overlooked.

In this landscape of awards, the narratives surrounding each player add depth to the statistics. As we approach the end of the season, these discussions will only intensify, reflecting the passion and complexity of baseball.