NFL Week 5 Picks: Underdogs and Favorites to Watch
As we dive into Week 5 of the NFL season, the excitement is palpable. With teams showcasing their strengths and weaknesses, this week promises to deliver some thrilling matchups. Underdogs have been performing well this season, boasting a record of 33-29-3 (53.2%) against the spread. This trend adds an intriguing layer to our betting strategies as we analyze the upcoming games. Let’s break down my three best bets against the spread for this week.
Browns vs. Commanders Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | +3.5 (-120) | +145 | Over 44 (-100) |
| Washington Commanders | -3.5 (+105) | -175 | Under 44 (-110) |
NFL ATS Picks #1: Browns +3.5 (vs. Commanders)
The Cleveland Browns are set to face off against the Washington Commanders, who are currently favored by 3.5 points. The Commanders, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, have been on a hot streak, showcasing an explosive offense against the Bengals and Cardinals in recent weeks. However, the Browns’ defense presents a formidable challenge, allowing under 300 yards per game. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is likely to devise a game plan aimed at stifling Daniels’ production.
On the offensive side, the Browns have struggled, but this matchup could be the perfect opportunity for Deshaun Watson to find his rhythm. The Commanders’ defense has been porous, allowing over 25 points per game and ranking poorly in both pass and rush defense metrics. With the Browns’ defense being the stronger unit, I believe this line reflects an overreaction to the Commanders’ recent success. I’m taking the Browns to cover the spread, capitalizing on the value of getting over a field goal.
Raiders vs. Broncos Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | +3 (-115) | +125 | Over 35.5 (-110) |
| Denver Broncos | -3 (-105) | -150 | Under 35.5 (-110) |
NFL ATS Picks #2: Broncos -3 (vs. Raiders)
In a clash of AFC West rivals, the Denver Broncos are hosting the Las Vegas Raiders, with the Broncos favored by 3 points. Denver’s defense has been stellar, allowing fewer than 10 points per game over their last three outings. Cornerback Pat Surtain has emerged as a lockdown defender, and his matchup against a Raiders offense missing star receiver Davante Adams could be pivotal.
The Raiders have shown some defensive resilience, but they struggle against the run, ranking among the worst in the league in yards allowed per carry. This plays right into the Broncos’ game plan, which emphasizes a strong running game and minimizing mistakes. With the total set at a low 35.5, scoring opportunities will be limited, but I believe the Broncos will secure a victory by at least a field goal, making them a solid pick against the spread.
Cowboys vs. Steelers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | +2.5 (-105) | +120 | Over 40.5 (-110) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -2.5 (-115) | -145 | Under 44 (-110) |
NFL ATS Picks #3: Steelers -2.5 (vs. Cowboys)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the season as they host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers are favored by 2.5 points, and I believe they will cover this spread. The Cowboys have not looked as dominant as they did last season, particularly on defense, which will be without star linebacker Micah Parsons.
While the Steelers’ offense has been inconsistent, quarterback Justin Fields has shown promise, and I expect them to find success against a vulnerable Cowboys defense. The key to this bet lies in the Steelers’ defense, which, despite a rough outing last week, remains one of the top units in the league. Playing at home under the lights, the Steelers should be able to rally the crowd and secure a victory, making them a strong pick to cover the spread.
With these insights into the matchups and betting lines, NFL Week 5 promises to be an exciting week for fans and bettors alike. Whether you’re backing the underdogs or the favorites, make sure to analyze the trends and stats as you place your bets. Happy wagering!