Locked In: My Best ATS Picks for NFL Week 4
As we dive into NFL Week 4, I find myself reflecting on a challenging start to the season. After three weeks of action, my record stands at 3-6, with each week yielding a frustrating 1-2 performance in my best picks against the spread (ATS). However, the tides are turning, and I’m optimistic about this week’s matchups. Let’s explore the trends and the teams I’m backing to turn my record around.
The Underdog Trend
One of the most compelling narratives this season has been the success of underdogs. Following the New York Giants’ impressive cover against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football, underdogs of 5.5 points or more have posted a staggering 15-2 record against the spread this season. Even more striking, underdogs of 7 points or more are a perfect 4-0 straight up. With this trend in mind, I’m targeting a 7-point underdog in my Week 4 picks, hoping to capitalize on the momentum.
Saints vs. Falcons Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | +2.5 (+110) | +115 | Over 42.5 (−105) |
| Atlanta Falcons | -2.5 (−110) | -135 | Under 42.5 (−115) |
NFL ATS Picks #1: Falcons -2.5 (vs. Saints)
The Atlanta Falcons are set to host their divisional rivals, the New Orleans Saints, as 2.5-point favorites. The line has shifted from Falcons -1.5 to -2.5, indicating a growing confidence in Atlanta.
The Saints struggled last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, managing only 12 points after a strong start to the season. Quarterback Derek Carr’s performance has been underwhelming, especially in Atlanta, where he holds a dismal 0-2 record against the spread and straight up. His road ATS record since 2017 is the worst among starting quarterbacks, making this matchup particularly challenging for him.
On the flip side, the Falcons’ defense has been impressive, ranking eighth in the league for passing yards allowed and limiting opponents to under 21 points per game. With a talented offense featuring playmakers like Bijan Robinson and Drake London, the Falcons should be able to secure a victory by at least a field goal at home.
Pick: Falcons -2.5 (-110)
Steelers vs. Colts Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.5 (-110) | -125 | Over 40.5 (+100) |
| Indianapolis Colts | +1.5 (−110) | +105 | Under 40.5 (−120) |
NFL ATS Picks #2: Steelers -1.5 (vs. Colts)
In a surprising twist, the Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves as slight road favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. The Steelers are one of the few remaining undefeated teams, boasting a 3-0 record both straight up and against the spread.
This matchup has the potential to be a defensive battle, which plays into the Steelers’ strengths. They have excelled in one-score games, holding an impressive 11-2 record since the beginning of last season. Their defense has been formidable, allowing under 9 points per game, while the Colts’ offense has struggled, particularly with quarterback Anthony Richardson completing just 43.9% of his passes.
Mike Tomlin’s track record against rookie quarterbacks is noteworthy, and while Richardson is not a rookie, he is still relatively inexperienced. The Steelers’ defense is poised to dominate this game, making them a solid pick to win and cover the spread.
Pick: Steelers -1.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -7 (-120) | -380 | Over 39.5 (−115) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +7 (+100) | +300 | Under 39.5 (−105) |
NFL ATS Picks #3: Chargers +7 (vs. Chiefs)
The Kansas City Chiefs enter Week 4 with a perfect 3-0 record, but their games have been nail-biters, lacking the dominance we’ve come to expect from them. Patrick Mahomes has been effective, but his ATS record against the Chargers is less impressive, sitting at 4-5-1.
Home divisional underdogs have historically performed well, with a 59% success rate against the spread over the last two decades. The Chargers, now under the guidance of Jim Harbaugh, have shown promise and should be able to keep this game competitive. With a low total of 39.5, getting 7 points is particularly appealing, as scoring may be limited.
While I’m not ready to predict an outright win for the Chargers, their talent and coaching should allow them to stay within a touchdown of the Chiefs.
Pick: Chargers +7 (+100)
Recap of My Week 4 Picks
- Falcons -2.5 vs. Saints
- Steelers -1.5 vs. Colts
- Chargers +7 vs. Chiefs
With the underdog trend in full swing and a few matchups that favor my picks, I’m hopeful that Week 4 will mark a turning point in my ATS record. Let’s see how these games unfold!